Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.